State Cup Committee Seeding Results for Boys 2007

There is a  MSYSA State Cup "Committee" who  is responsible for setting up the tournament.  They decide who is the #1-#10 teams and then assign them to pools by placing them in the Pools (up to 8) and then reversing the order until the 10 teams are used up. 

From that point, they are "supposed" (it is written in their rules) to fill in the Pools in a double blind draw.  A double blind draw pulls the team from one basket and then the pool  assignment from another basket.  This is typically considered to be the best way to get a random assignment of teams. 

Unfortunately, in reality, the "committee" typically has resorted to placing teams in pools in a subjective manner.  This has resulted in pools containing teams that are geographically close to each other.  This has also resulted in some teams being placed in the same pool with the same teams for 2-3 years running which is frankly, a statistical impossibility if a double blind draw is actually used.

However, ultimately, this is similar to the NCAA basketball tournament in that everyone wants the best 4 teams at the end.  The FA Cup uses a much different process which is totally random and sometimes results in the two best teams meeting early and someone going home.

At any rate, here is what happened this year.

I have placed the Top 4 seeds on the left and the 4 teams who actually made it to the semi-finals on the right.  Results different than the seeding are in BOLD. 

At U18, one team (WM Fire) that was seeded 3rd advanced as a Wild Card #2.  A victory against the #2 seed (Vardar) put them into the semi-finals.  This meant that there were three incorrect seeds at the U18 age group even though one team that was seeded in the top 4 ultimately made it.  At U18. it could be argued that player movement that the committee was unaware of created the errors.  Since this is the second year in a row this has occurred, we can argue that at U18, maybe a different format could be used.

This year the committee was correct in 15 of the 24 seeding decisions at #1 through #4.  This could be interpreted to mean that mistakes were made this year.  The mistakes are likely due to the parity that exists below the top 2 teams. 

There are many reasons for this but I think it comes primarily form the better coaching that the players have been exposed to since youth soccer has become a business.  More and more coaches are making it their livelihood rather than a hobby.   

It is infinitely more difficult to correctly seed #5-#10 and more mistakes were made at that level but it is less important since ultimately getting the top four teams correct is what counts.

Semi Finals

(Teams in bold are incorrect seeds)

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Finals

When you get to this point, almost anything can happen. This year, the top 2 seeds were on the mark in 4 of 6 age groups..

At U18, the #1 seed (Wolves) advanced to meet an unseeded team (GRASA).  There is an interesting side story here.  Many of the the GRASA players were on a Kalamazoo Kingdom U17 team last year and they played the Wolves in Pool play.  The game was intense and the Wolves came from behind to win the game and the Pool.  The Kingdom did not advance.

At U17, both top seeded teams advanced (#1 Vardar vs #2 Wolves).

At U16, both top seeded teams advanced (#1 Wolves vs #2 Vardar)

At U15, the #1 seed (Wolves) advanced to meet the #3 seed (Vardar).

At U14, both top seeded teams advanced. (#1 Wolves vs Vardar)

At U13, both top seeded teams advanced (#1 Grand Valley vs #2 Vardar)

All six #1 seeds did advance. 

Four of the #2 seeds did advance.

A #3 seed advanced at U15 (Vardar).  This is not too much of a surprise as there is not much difference between a #2 and #3.   

At U18, an unseeded team (GRASA) advanced.  

At the end of the day, the committee seeded 10 out of the top 12 teams correctly. 

It could be argued that U18, that two years in a row, an unseeded team has advanced to the finals and that some allowances should be given.