I think any ITM team who challenges for the shield these days has a chance of lifting it. So yes, Hawkes Bay can do it. They have a good back-line with Mathewson, Kaka, and Guilford as key players and a decent pack which can get its fair share of possession. But Otago after a 57 year wait wont give it up easy in front of a sell out crowd. I haven't seen the team for Otago but I assume Ben Smith isn't available which is a shame because hes the form winger in Nz at the moment. I'm picking a 25-20 win to Otago just because I'm happy to see them have the shield for at least a couple of defences this year. Just hope that neither Auckland or Canterbury gets their hands on it this year. Both teams have had long defence reigns many times in the last 20 or so years which I think are not really appreciated in those two cities by the fans. Just my opinion. EDIT: Steve M - Hawkes Bay have held the shield several times in the past. In fact, there 1922-1926 shield tenure is still considered one of the greatest ever. There last reign was from 1966-69 which makes it 44 years since they last held it.